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October 4, 2004

The War in Iraq
The most costly mistake in the history of the United States

"The Iraq War makes as much sense as building a giant bonfire and throwing $47 trillion dollars onto it while simultaneously shooting tens of thousands of people with the expectation that these acts will bring a cure for heart disease."
- Johnny Peaceseed

In 2001, 2,957 people in the United States died as a result of terrorism. A terrible tragedy and a great loss to our country. We all mourn the victim’s passing and regret the loss of life. But consider this. Why do we not place an equal value on all the other lives cut short by other causes of death in the same year? Are they not worth an equal amount? And what are the long term costs of the war? in increased terrorism. Reduced prestige in the world, Economic devastation at home. Focusing on shadow demons while the real enemies are disregarded.

I decided to do a cost analysis to see whether the cost of the Iraq war was worth the colossal cost in both lives of American and Iraqis and the dollar and psychic cost that each of us and our heirs must bear. I wanted to know how much we will spend in Iraq to avenge those 2,957. The lowest widely reported figure I could find was $200 billion dollars through 2006. Never mind that Iraq wasn’t responsible for 911. Never mind that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction. No nuclear weapons. No biological weapons, No chemical weapons. That we didn’t decrease the likelihood of terrorism, but greatly instead increased it. Let’s put all that aside for the moment. Also, for this analysis, let’s not include the cost of the Afghan War and our failure to find Osama bin Laden.

So, what we’re the costs per victim of 911 of the Iraq War? What were the human costs? And how did this compare to other causes of deaths in 2001?

First let’s examine terrorism deaths in the United States in 2001:

Terrorism deaths in US in 2001 - 2957
Cost of Iraq War through October 3, 2004 $137 billion
Estimated cost of Iraq war through 2006 $200 billion
Cost of Iraq War per life of each 2001 terrorism victim (est. 2003-2006) - $67,636,117.70

That’s right. We will have spent $67 million dollars in Iraq to avenge each 911 victim. Civilian death in Iraq are estimated to be between12,976 to 37,000. We have killed between 3.7 and 12.5 Iraqi civilians for each terrorism victim in United States in 2001. We have killed 1063 Americans in Iraq to avenge 911. That’s one American killed for each three 911 victims. Does something smell bad here, besides the corpses that keep piling up?

Next, let’s look at other causes of death in the United States in 2001:

Total of All U.S. Deaths in 2001 2,416,425 817
If you died in 2001, you were 817 times more likely to die from a cause other than terrorism. 817 times!

The following table shows the increase in likelihood of dying from non-disease related causes in 2001 as compared to dying from a terrorism attack and the equivalent spending that would have been required to match the cost per victim of 911. The first column is the cause of death. The second show the number of victims from each cause. The third is the increased likelihood of dying from another cause as compared to dying in a terrorist attack. The fourth column shows how much we would have spent to cure other causes of death in 2001, if we had spent the same amount on them as we did in Iraq to avenge 911:

Table 1

In simple language, you were 7.33 times more likely to die from drugs and 14.35 times more likely to die in an auto accident than from a terrorist attack. The next time you're driving, look over at the driver next to you. Be more afraid of that person than any terrorist. Our nation clearly places a higher value on terrorism related death. Even though you were much more likely to die from another cause.

Now let’s now look at all causes of death, including disease and smoking related deaths. As with the first chart, the first column is the cause of death. The second show the number of victims from each cause. The third is the increased likelihood of dying from another cause as compared to dying in a terrorist attack. The fourth column shows how much we would have spent to cure other causes of death in 2001, if we had spent the same amount on them as we did in Iraq to avenge 911:

Table 2

In 2001, you were 236.77 times more likely to die of heart disease and 145.42 times more likely to die from smoking related illness. Are you feeling a little queasy yet? The Iraq War makes as much sense as building a giant bonfire and throwing $47 trillion dollars onto it while simultaneously shooting thousands of people with the expectation that these acts will bring a cure for heart disease. Madness. If we were to fight other causes of death with the same ferocity that we have shown in Iraq we would have to spend $163 trillion each three years compounded annually. That’s $54 trillion this year, at least $108 trillion next year and so on if we had a terrorist attack each year of the magnitude of 911. We would be bankrupted by January 15th the first year. And yet we will spend $200 billion to defeat an enemy that had nothing to do with 911.

So what is the point of this cost comparison? First, why aren’t we as afraid of heart disease or cancer or homicide or getting in our cars or any of the other leading causes of death as we are of terrorism? Why won’t we spend greater amounts on their eradication? These killers attack without warning. They are vastly greater threats to our health and safety. We are like Don Quixote, battling windmills while dragons eat our entrails.

Second, as long as we ignore, or are blind to the real reasons that terrorism flourishes, we will continue to battle false enemies. And spend the lives and fortunes of our people. We have failed to “keep our eyes on the prize.” Terrorists don’t hate our freedom. They hate what we would hate if we were in their shoes: poverty, prejudice, economic exploitation, religious repression, occupation, disrespect. Terrorism exists because we aren’t addressing the root causes of its existence. Iraq isn’t the real enemy and for that matter neither is Al Quaida. But they sure are convenient excuses when we won’t face our own demons.

Data derived from Center for Disease Control, Iraq Body Count and media reports.

Johnny Peaceseed